The Fed Just Raised Rates - What It Means for Westlake Village, Malibu, Thousand Oaks & Newbury Park Real Estate September 2026 Market Update | Doolittle Real Estate Group The Federal Reserve just made an important move and homeowners and buyers throughout Westlake Village, Malibu, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park should be paying attention. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The decision was unanimous and reflects the Fed's continued concern about inflation, even as the broader economy remains relatively resilient. But here's the part that matters for local real estate: A Fed rate increase does not automatically mean mortgage rates rise by the same amount or even immediately. And for homeowners thinking about selling, buyers waiting for a better rate, or families trying to decide whether now is the right time to make a move, understanding that distinction could be extremely important. The Fed Doesn't Set Mortgage Rates One of the biggest misconceptions in real estate is that when the Federal Reserve raises or lowers rates, mortgage rates simply follow. They don't. The federal funds rate is a short-term interest rate. Mortgage rates are influenced much more heavily by the bond market, inflation expectations and what investors believe will happen to the economy in the months and years ahead. Rocket Mortgage makes an important point in its analysis of the latest Fed decision: mortgage pricing often reflects what financial markets expect to happen in the future, meaning an anticipated Fed decision may already be incorporated into mortgage rates before the Fed actually meets. That's particularly important right now. The Fed's September projections show a median federal funds rate estimate of 4.1% at the end of 2026 and 4.1% at the end of 2027. Inflation also remains above the Fed's long-term 2% objective. So buyers waiting for substantially lower mortgage rates shouldn't assume that relief is right around the corner. What Does This Mean for Our Local Real Estate Market? National housing statistics are useful, but real estate is intensely local. And the dynamics affecting a $1.5 million home in Thousand Oaks are very different from those affecting a $5 million property in Malibu. In Westlake Village, Malibu, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park, higher borrowing costs interact with several unusual characteristics of our market: high property values, significant homeowner equity, limited inventory in desirable neighborhoods and a large number of existing homeowners who secured historically low mortgage rates several years ago. That creates a market where both buyers and sellers can feel stuck. The buyer asks: "Should I wait for mortgage rates to come down?" The homeowner asks: "Why would I give up my 3% mortgage?" Those may be the two most important questions in our local market right now. The 3% Mortgage Problem Across the Conejo Valley and surrounding communities, many homeowners purchased or refinanced when mortgage rates were historically low. Today, some of those owners have accumulated substantial equity but hesitate to sell because replacing a 3% mortgage with today's financing feels financially counterintuitive. That hesitation is understandable. But your mortgage rate is only one component of the decision. If your home no longer fits your lifestyle, you're maintaining far more house than you need, you want to move closer to family, you're considering retirement, or you have hundreds of thousands potentially millions of dollars of equity trapped in the property, the better question isn't simply: "What interest rate do I have?" It's: "What is the best use of my home, my equity and my money for the next chapter of my life?" For some homeowners, staying will absolutely make sense. For others, the low mortgage rate may be keeping them in a property that no longer serves their financial or lifestyle goals. That calculation should be made with actual numbers not just a mortgage-rate headline. Westlake Village: Equity Meets the Lock-In Effect Westlake Village is a perfect example. Many longtime owners purchased years or even decades ago and now hold substantial equity. Some have relatively small mortgage balances or no mortgage at all. That means today's interest-rate environment doesn't affect every Westlake Village homeowner equally. For someone buying with significant proceeds from an existing home, the financing requirement on the next property may be considerably smaller than the headline purchase price suggests. That is why homeowners considering downsizing shouldn't automatically assume today's rates make moving financially impossible. Run the numbers first. Thousand Oaks & Newbury Park: Affordability Matters In Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park, mortgage rates can have a more visible effect on buyer purchasing power. A seemingly small change in rates can materially alter the monthly payment on a seven-figure purchase. That makes pricing strategy increasingly important for sellers. Today's buyer has access to enormous amounts of information. They're comparing listings, monthly payments, price per square foot, condition, location and competing inventory before they ever walk through the front door. A property that is positioned correctly can generate meaningful interest. A property that enters the market overpriced may lose momentum quickly. Nationally, Realtor.com's latest weekly data showed active inventory running 5% above the same period last year, while median listing prices were 1.2% lower year over year for the week ending September 12. Those are national figures rather than Conejo Valley statistics, but they reinforce why sellers need to pay attention to competition and pricing rather than assuming the market will absorb an aspirational price. Malibu: Rates Matter, But Not Always in the Same Way Malibu operates differently. At the upper end of the market, financing may be only one component of a buyer's decision. Cash purchases, substantial down payments, portfolio lending and complex financial structures can reduce the direct influence of conventional mortgage rates. But that doesn't make Malibu immune to the broader financial environment. Higher borrowing costs can affect liquidity, investment decisions and how buyers compare real estate against other uses of capital. That makes property differentiation and realistic positioning especially important. A truly exceptional Malibu property can command attention. A property that is difficult to distinguish from competing inventory may face much more price sensitivity. Buyers: Should You Wait for Rates to Fall? There is no universal answer. But waiting solely because you're expecting substantially lower mortgage rates can create another problem. If rates eventually decline meaningfully, additional buyers may return to the market. That can potentially increase competition for desirable homes. Conversely, if rates remain elevated, waiting may not produce the affordability improvement a buyer expected. That's why I encourage buyers to focus less on trying to perfectly time interest rates and more on answering three questions: Can I comfortably afford the payment today? Am I buying the right property at the right price? Does this purchase make sense for my expected ownership horizon? If those answers work, future refinancing may provide an additional opportunity if rates eventually decline. Sellers: The Market Is Sending a Different Message For sellers, the Fed's latest decision reinforces something we've already been seeing: Today's market rewards preparation, pricing and strategy. The days when nearly every property could be placed on the market and expect immediate competition are behind us. Buyers are calculating. They're comparing. They're watching price reductions. They're looking closely at condition. And higher financing costs make them even more sensitive to value. That doesn't mean it's a bad time to sell. It means how you sell matters more. The Bigger Question: Stay or Sell? For many homeowners throughout Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park, particularly longtime owners approaching retirement or becoming empty nesters, the real estate conversation shouldn't begin with: "What can I sell my house for?" It should begin with: "What do I want the next 5, 10 or 20 years of my life to look like?" Then we work backward. What is the home worth? How much equity could be unlocked? Where would you move? Would you purchase the next property with cash, substantial equity or financing? What would your monthly expenses look like? What are the tax considerations? What would it cost to stay? And perhaps most importantly: What opportunities does your equity create? A 3% mortgage is valuable. But so is flexibility. The Bottom Line The Federal Reserve's September decision is another reminder that the real estate market is changing. The Fed raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00%, inflation remains above its long-term target, and the Fed's latest projections don't point to an immediate return to the ultra-low-rate environment homeowners became accustomed to earlier this decade. For homeowners and buyers in Westlake Village, Malibu, Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park, that means decisions shouldn't be based on trying to predict the next Fed meeting. They should be based on your property, your equity, your financial position and your long-term plans. If you've been thinking about selling, downsizing, relocating or simply wondering whether staying in your current home still makes financial sense, this may be the right time to run the numbers even if you ultimately decide not to move. Brandon Doolittle Doolittle Real Estate Group | Compass Global Luxury Real Estate Curator & Strategist Serving Westlake Village, Malibu, Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park and the surrounding Southern California luxury markets.